Search results for "Fiscal adjustment"

showing 4 items of 4 documents

A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations

2019

Abstract This paper analyses the transitions out of fiscal consolidations using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1975-2013 and applying a discrete-time competing risks duration model. Our approach allows us to distinguish the factors behind a successful or an unsuccessful end of fiscal consolidation episodes. The results show that economic and political factors, the size and typology of fiscal adjustments and the occurrence of crises explain the differences in the length and the success/failure of fiscal consolidations. Moreover, while fiscal adjustment programmes that end successfully display positive duration dependence, those that end in an unsuccessful manner are …

040101 forestryTypologyEconomics and Econometrics050208 financeApplied economics05 social sciencesDuration dependenceSettore SECS-P/02 Politica Economica04 agricultural and veterinary sciencesMonetary economicsFiscal consolidations Discrete duration data Competing risks Multinomial logitCompeting risksConsolidation (business)0502 economics and business8. Economic growthEconomics0401 agriculture forestry and fisheriesFiscal adjustmentFinanceMultinomial logistic regression
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Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment

2014

Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978-2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6-0.7 (1.8-2.2) percentage points.

Economics and EconometricsLabour economicsFull employmentYouth and long-term unemploymentmedia_common.quotation_subject1. No povertySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaFlexibility IndexLabour market flexibilitySocial SciencesPercentage pointUnemployment8. Economic growthUnemploymentFiscal adjustmentEconomicsFiscal adjustmentsFinancemedia_commonLabour market flexibility
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Balance of payments crises and fiscal adjustment measures

1991

A model with optimizing firms and consumers is used to explore the effects of unannounced and preannounced fiscal adjustment policies that are intended to prevent an impending balance of payments crisis. It is shown that preannouncement unambiguously raises the required fiscal adjustment effort so that, from the government's point of view, “cold turkey” is the preferable policy. The effect of preannouncement on the private sector's adjustment cost is ambiguous since preannouncement induces an externality which may either benefit or harm the private sector, depending on the nature of the measure that is preannounced.

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsGovernmentHarmBalance of paymentsEconomicsFiscal adjustmentPrivate sectorDiscount pointsExternalityJournal of Macroeconomics
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FISCAL READJUSTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: A NONLINEAR TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

2009

We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models. We find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure. The results of out-of-sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves fore…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsMultivariate statisticsUnivariateRegression analysisGeneral Business Management and AccountingNonlinear time series analysisAutoregressive modelnon line time series; forecasting; government solvencyValue (economics)Per capitaEconomicsEconometricsFiscal adjustmentThreshold Cointegration Forecasting Deficit Sustainability
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